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Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season/July
July 03L.CHANTAL 95L.INVEST This will probably become Chantal in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:58, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Currently, this invest is at 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 18:45, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : This one is the one that's worth watching. Chantal-to be is forecast to head west-northwest into the Caribbean and slowly but surely strengthen along the way. This is very ominous for this time of year. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 01:02, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Well, it seems as if the GFS seems to like the wave behind 95L more. I still think this wave is one of the most big ones we have seen so far this year. Definitely could get a tropical depression or storm out of this if it slows down and closes off a circulation. Simlover123' ' 02:41, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Should be Chantal or td 3 tomorrow if organization persist.Allanjeffs 09:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Now 40%. Still forecast to move through the Caribbean and gradually strengthen, but according to some of the reliable models, there will be some shear in the Eastern Caribbean at the time it arrives, so it might not be much until it hits the Central/Western Caribbean. It's early in the season to see powerful, Cape-Verde storms, but according to some seasons (1996, 2005, 2008), it's not impossible in early July. Ryan1000 13:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: If 95L develops into Chantal the Gfs is showing another system potentially Dorian affecting Florida as a strong system.Allanjeffs 17:21, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: 60% the EPAC already has it fun its time for the atlantic to make a comeback.:PAllanjeffs 17:24, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: It will go straight to ts as winds are now 35knots. AL, 95, 2013070718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 438W, 35, 1008, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Allanjeffs 18:29, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : CMON CHANTAL BRO she is currently at a 60% chance of forming right off the coast of Western Africa. This is fresh from the NHC: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Judging from that shape, Chantal would probably become no more than a weakish Category 1 hurricane, and I am somewhat expecting a re-Rafael of 2012, but the only difference is that it is... in summer and not autumn, and it happens almost one year later, and this is a girl hurricane not a boy hurricane. Chantal is probably going to have an expected formation date of about July 10. Sooner or later, Dozza Gray might be here next week if conditions are like this! Guys, what do you think? (P.S. Andy Murray won Wimbledon. He made history! :D) Rara Hooves 19:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC) If NHC named Ana and not this, I'll be very surprised. As far as organization goes, this has much more defined structural features compared to Ana at peak intensity. Also, if it forms this far south, there isn't enough rotational velocity supported by the Coriolis force. It will have to get pulled by the westerlies before strengthening significantly. This could pull of an Arthur 90'. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:04, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :From what I gather this is an unusually strong tropical wave for this time of year and in this location (there is also another potent wave coming off the coast of Africa). The ATCF files are already saying that this has tropical storm winds, so this would most likely skip TD status once classified. All the models I've looked at so far have this striking at least parts of the Greater Antilles and the US, though the BAMD and the AEMI are quite ambiguous with their track forecasts. It looks like the upper-end intensity is a strong Category 1 in five days, though most of the models have this peaking as a moderate tropical storm in three or so days, by which time the storm should be at about 65W. The TAFB model has this making landfall on the DR by 1200 UTC on Wednesday. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:11, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :95L will enter the Caribbean there is no doubt of that but the place it goes will depend its strength many are showing a landfall in Haiti and DR.Allanjeffs 22:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC) The NHC has bumped this invest up to 70%. Currently, all the computer models predict 95L will affect the Leeward Islands. I believe this invest will follow a path similar to Hurricane Dennis of 2005, and its maximum intensity will be similar to 2005's Hurricane Cindy. I doubt this system will become a major hurricane, although I think conditions will be ideal for a minimal hurricane. Also, CS, gale-force winds have been reported in the center, meaning if 95L becomes tropical, it will go straight to tropical storm intensity. And Liz, Rafael was steered very early in its development northwards because of a trough. There will likely be no trough to force 95L northward, and none of the computer models currently forecasting the invest predict such an early northward turn in the invest's projected path. AndrewTalk To Me 01:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three Contrary to the ASCAT passes we now have a renumbered tropical depression per ATCF. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:16, July 8, 2013 (UTC) I know they went with td they should have gone with ts.Allanjeffs 02:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC) AL, 03, 2013070800, , BEST, 0, 97N, 461W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, M she is here. the third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:32, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Chantal The third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) :With AJ's posting, it would appear that the NHC has corrected (I use that term really loosely) the ATCF entry, and it has now been classified as a tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:41, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not seeing anything on the NHC website, maybe we should wait on this? --HurricaneMaker99 02:55, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::One minute later...advisory comes out. Spoke too soon, HM.Isaac829 02:57, July 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I was about to say that info was starting to show up. TS Warning up for St. Lucia, Dominica, and Barbados, TS Watch in effect for St. Vincent. Hello Chantal! --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Speedy little bugger too! Rocketing off to the west at 26 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 03:03, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::mhm that means that even with that foward speed tc can develop.The NHC just portray the track I was thinking.btw the ATCF are correct 99% of the time specially with systems close to land.Allanjeffs 03:12, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, that was fast! I did not expect Chantal to come by this soon. Anyway, the system is forecast to interact with the Greater Antilles landmasses in a few days. Also, because of Chantal's fast movement, I do not expect a very intense system yet, probably only as intense as 2011's Tropical Storm Emily. Regardless, the Leewards will take a direct hit from this storm. Chantal's current intensity is 35-kts/1007 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 10:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I doubt I believe right now is a 45 or 50 mph storm she has a chance of reaching hurricane intensity before hitting DR.Btw in a week we will probably see Dorian and it looks like conditions will be more favorable for him.Allanjeffs 11:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Since the last advisory, Chantal has intensified slightly. Also, tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico as well. Impactwise, Chantal should bring gusty winds, precipitation measurements of 2 to 4 inches, and a 1 to 3 foot storm surge to the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecasted to attain 60-kt winds once in the Caribbean Sea. Although hurricane status is possible, I think land interaction with the Greater Antilles will hinder any guarantee of hurricane intensity for Chantal. After the Greaters, Chantal is predicted to weaken over the Bahamas. If, by chance, the system does reach the United States, I believe it will be nothing more than a tropical depression. Overall, Chantal should remain a weak system and not cause any major impact, unless it pulls a Tomas. AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC) As nightfall begins on Chantal looks like it is organizing back a little bit after a drawback in convection earlier today. It is moving into more northerly latitudes, so the tradewinds are starting to spread the storm out. We'll see how it survives in the tradewinds as it approaches the Lessers. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:54, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : Maybe Chantal won't end up as threatening as I first thought it would be, if it runs itself over Hispaniola, this won't be any worse than Emily of 2011. It'll have to slow down if it wants to become something in the Caribbean, not that that's typical for storms in early-mid July anyways. Not forecast to get stronger than a TS, due to her rapid movement. Ryan1000 18:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Oh, and one more thing -- If you see Dr. Jeff Master's latest blog post, he mentioned a quote from Dr. Gray of CSU saying that seven of the most active seasons since record-keeping in 1950 had early-season activity in the Central Atlantic from tropical waves off of Africa. Those seasons were 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All of those seasons turned out to be very active and destructive seasons overall, and he mentioned that the formation of Chantal in the Central Atlantic on July 8 -- over a month earlier than the typical August 13 for the season's third named storm -- means that conditions in the central, Main Development Region of the Atlantic are already very favorable for tropical cyclone development. There could be a lot of powerful, long-lasting, and potentially life-threatening, Cape Verde-type hurricanes in the Central Atlantic this year for that very reason. We're in for a helluva ride, and Chantal is merely the beginning of what's to come. Ryan1000 18:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Sup dudes. Fresh from the Weather Channel: ::: "Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean late Sunday night (Eastern U.S. time) and is racing west toward the Lesser Antilles. The system developed as a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds before finally developing a closed circulation late Sunday night, thus bypassing the tropical depression phase and becoming Tropical Storm Chantal straightaway. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch has now been issued for Puerto Rico, and continues in effect for Saint Vincent. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Windward Islands by early Tuesday and may affect parts of Puerto Rico late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After crossing the Lesser Antilles, Chantal is expected to affect portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba (see the latest projected path map below). Residents in the mainland U.S. will have to pay attention to this system. The current forecast takes the center of Chantal over the Bahamas Friday into early Saturday, but given the margin of error in the forecast, parts of Florida could be affected as well at the end of the workweek." Oh dear. I also have a map of an update of this terrifying storm: In my opinion, I see this Chantal becoming a Category 1 at the max. Remember, it's only July, and the worst storms usually occur from August - October. (The storms that are most likely to be the worst are from Humberto - Sebastian.) Rara Hooves 19:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : I honestly don't expect Chantal to become more than a C1 either, unless it misses Hispaniola to the south. If it does, then we could have a potentially dangerous hurricane approaching the GOM by Friday/Saturday. And behind Chantal we have another African wave which could become Dorian in 3-4 days as well. Ryan1000 22:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Chantal is the shit! A moderate tropical storm with 45kt winds yet recon only hint extrapolated surface pressure of 1010mb. Flight level winds aren't exactly accurate either but heck, 1010mb! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:02, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Chantal is strengthening even with all factors against it.She might even reach hurricane status before hitting Hispañola btw my friend prepare for Dorian is leaving Africa right now most models show this becoming a formidable hurricane probably a major.Allanjeffs 01:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Currently, Chantal is leveling off in terms of intensity. However, radar data from Barbados indicates poor development to its north. Also, tropical storm watches are now in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. And I am still not rooting Chantal will become a hurricane. The storm is not moving slow enough to allow significant development, but hurricane status is not out of the question. AndrewTalk To Me 12:46, July 9, 2013 (UTC) It may have been steadily strengthening but it's definitely become quite disorganized in the past few hours. Save a large convective burst, convection had been stalling and had been quite warm. As such the center of Chantal has raced westward ahead of the center and is near landfall or going to slip past Martinique, roughly 50-100 miles ahead of the supposed CDO. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:42, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Actually even though she looks horrible she is strengthening she might become a cat 1 before a landfall in Hispañola.Allanjeffs 13:52, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :Eh.... I'm not too sure about that. Recon recorded estimated SFMR surface winds of 68 kt (Category 1 hurricane) but these occurred right off land in Martinique and there are numerous flagged observations there. Also there's a station in Le Lamentein which will give a really good indication on the strength of Chantal. Currently it's giving 35 mph winds and 1011 pressure, which is what we were expecting. Also the eyewall, or at least the storms surrounding the CoC are ready to slam into the station. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:58, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :Upto 60 and a hurricane watch issue to DR.Allanjeffs 15:07, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::And moving even faster now, too: 29 mph! "I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED." -Forecaster Avila. --HurricaneMaker99 15:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::Haha, I love it when NHC makes quotes like that. Chantal looks like she'll run herself over Hispaniola by tomorrow, but most of the models take her surviving Hispaniola and paralleling the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a tropical storm. Some of the models take Chantal to becoming a hurricane as it heads towards the Carolinas in 4-5 days time, but NHC is really conservative and makes it only a minor TS after leaving Hispaniola. I don't blame them knowing how small the circulation is; however Chantal isn't guranteed to die like Emily did in 2011. Ryan1000 15:49, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::Chantal continues to impress me, and despite the atypical appearance on satellite imagery, continues to strengthen based on recon and radar data. Perhaps the tradewinds are helping wrap Chantal up, but since it's now embedded in the tradewind flow I'm not sure how that would work. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:56, July 9, 2013 (UTC) It's moving too fast to be heavily sheared by the tradewinds, so that might help it organize into a strong TS or hurricane before it runs itself over Hispaniola and then heads for the U.S. east coast. Currently I'm more concerned with Soulik in WPac, but I'm still keeping a wary eye on Chantal. Ryan1000 16:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::Currently, Chantal is packing winds of 60 kts (65 mph), but it's pressure is only 1006 mbar. It's moving rapidly into the Eastern Caribbean and toward Hispaniola. St. Lucia has discontinued the tropical storm warning for the nation. However, I am still not predicting a hurricane, and I am watching Soulik more closely. AndrewTalk To Me 20:38, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::::NHC said in their intensity probability forecast that Chantal only has a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before it hits Hispaniola tomorrow afternoon. After Chantal quickly runs over Hispaniola, the trough over the southeast will pull it further northwest, but slow it down to 20 mph, and 10 mph a day later. Meanwhile, wind shear will also decrease, so Chantal has a chance to restrengthen during that time, possibly becoming a hurricane, before High Pressure builds in and forces it onshore Florida or somewhere else in the southeast by Sunday or Monday next week. Ryan1000 20:56, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::We'll have to wait and see where Chantal positions herself to see where the ridging will take it. There are still a few models pinning for just a westward track into the western Carib, but I doubt that'll verify. Also, I'd like to add that for a 65 mph tropical storm, the satellite imagery is laughable - looks like a north-south tropical wave axis with convection propogating westward. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 21:12, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Yeah, I'm not surprised Chantal isn't well organized for how decent her winds are, especially since it's still blazing west at 26 mph. She'll be running over Hispaniola pretty soon. The Euro model doesn't see Chantal surviving the island, while the GFS barely keeps her alive. NHC is more generous than them, keeping her a moderate TS after crossing Hispaniola, but not changing much from 45 knots after crossing the island. She could intensify after crossing Hispaniola, but I think Chantal's circulation will be so severely damaged after she crosses the island that she likely won't get to hurricane strength, let alone 60 mph. Ryan1000 23:42, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Winds down to 50 kt, pressure up to 1009 mbar, and check out this excerpt from the latest NHC discussion (emphasis mine): "THE PLANE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS." We could be talking about a system that's nothing more than an exceptionally vigorous tropical wave right now. --HurricaneMaker99 03:05, July 10, 2013 (UTC) : Wow, Chantal collapsed overnight. I was expecting it to get to 70 mph or so, but now it looks like it'll miss the Dominican Republic to the south and make landfall in southern Haiti instead. I'm also surprised NHC keeps it a depression all the way through. I expect Chantal to die sometime along the way, then possibly regenerate. Ryan1000 11:21, July 10, 2013 (UTC) Chantal is weakening. Currently, it is at 40 knots/1011 mbar. I believe this storm is actually a tropical wave, because I have never seen a 1011 mbar tropical system ever, and its satellite image presentation is HORRIBLE. In a way, Chantal is like a crossover of 2011's Emily and Maria (The NHC also debated Maria was not tropical at one point in its lifetime, and Maria was downgraded in post-season analysis.). Also, Haiti and Cuba are expected to take a hit from the system, and from there, Chantal is forecast to graze the Florida Peninsula's Atlantic coast and hit near Savannah, Georgia (Any thoughts on 1979's Hurricane David?). AndrewTalk To Me 12:03, July 10, 2013 (UTC) : A much watered-down version of him, yes. Ryan1000 12:15, July 10, 2013 (UTC) : Chantal has sucumb to the trade winds and its fast motion.Allanjeffs 13:03, July 10, 2013 (UTC) ::The recon plane found that Chantal is still alive, somehow. Chantal is now forecast to strike Florida from the south (if it even survives that far!) and dissipate offshore Georgia. --HurricaneMaker99 15:08, July 10, 2013 (UTC) ::She impress me even with all of the above plus wind shear,dry air and close to land she continues to survive she is unreal.Allanjeffs 16:18, July 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::Chantal is heading much farther west than earlier anticipated, due to her weak, disorganized nature and continued rapid movement to the west. It'll probrably head near (or through) Jamacia, hit western Cuba, then move over western Florida, all the time as a tropical storm. Reminds me a bit of Fay in 2008, but forming a little further east earlier in the season, and I doubt Chantal will make as many landfalls as Fay did. Ryan1000 19:50, July 10, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Chantal She dived head first.--Isaac829 20:51, July 10, 2013 (UTC) I knew this would happen. Chantal's degenerated. However, the threat to Cuba and Hispaniola is not over yet. They got something coming... AndrewTalk To Me 21:01, July 10, 2013 (UTC) Will she regenerate maybe maybe not but she is going to enter the gulf maybe there she could.Allanjeffs 21:35, July 10, 2013 (UTC) :Until and unless Chantal regenerates, I'm just gonna regard her as a 2011-style failure. At least the NHC did a somewhat better job of predicting such beforehand than they did during Emily. --HurricaneMaker99 21:51, July 10, 2013 (UTC) ::Ugh, gotta agree. What was meant to be a good storm turned out to be a flop. Ugh. I TOTALLY thought that Chantal would become a Category 1 or something. Hopefully Dozza Gray will be better than this. (At least this hurricane's name is cool!) Rara Hooves 22:22, July 10, 2013 (UTC) :::Personally I was hoping that Chantal could become a badass 1000-mbar minimal hurricane along the lines of 2003's Danny :P --HurricaneMaker99 00:15, July 11, 2013 (UTC) :::::Chantal is down, but not out. I think she'll regenerate later on as a TS, but for now it'll do nothing other than bring some rain to Hispaniola, Jamacia, and parts of southern Cuba. I was surprised Chantal ended up dying in the Caribbean; I honestly was expecting more of this storm. Emily's dissipation off of Hispaniola didn't surprise me in the slightest. If she does come back, I don't really expect more than 50-55 mph. Ryan1000 01:33, July 11, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Remnants are at 20% on the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 14:28, July 11, 2013 (UTC) Chantal might not be dead just yet!!! Conditions are becoming more favorable for development, and its remnants are currently at 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 18:10, July 11, 2013 (UTC) Yeah she is not out and less not forget that is her northern part we should watch the south part to.Allanjeffs 19:42, July 11, 2013 (UTC) : This kinda reminds me of Helene last year. Very unpredictable... but if this system becomes a depression, will it be called Chantal or Dorian? Just wondering... Rara Hooves 22:55, July 11, 2013 (UTC) Liz, if this system regenerates and keeps a closed circulation, as was the case with 2011's Emily, Maria, and Ophelia, it will be renamed Chantal. However, if the system regenerates, but the initial circulation dissipates and a new area of convection forms in the general vicinity, the system would be named Dorian. Also, if this system, by some freak occurence, crosses Mexico, degenerates over land, and a new low pressure area associated with the remnants form in the Pacific, it would be named Flossie. AndrewTalk To Me 23:04, July 11, 2013 (UTC) The remains of Chantal remain at 30%, but it's getting more organized. AndrewTalk To Me 00:12, July 12, 2013 (UTC) : I'd say Chantal will become tropical again in 36 hours, probably sometime tomorrow. Most models take this northward towards Georgia/the Carolinas, but none make it stronger than a moderate tropical storm on the way. Ryan1000 01:35, July 12, 2013 (UTC) ::Down to 10%. Re-development is becoming less and less likely. --HurricaneMaker99 13:07, July 12, 2013 (UTC) I believe Chantal is not going to pull an Emily (2011), instead it will just die over the Florida Peninsula. AndrewTalk To Me 13:35, July 12, 2013 (UTC) : Maybe Chantal won't come back to us after all. I didn't want to call Chantal a fail, but it looks like it is. No major impacts were recorded in Hispaniola or the other Caribbean Islands, and it's unlikely there will be anything else on the U.S. East Coast worth mentioning from her remnants. Ryan1000 14:34, July 12, 2013 (UTC) : up to 20% and she is really becoming better organized it looks like a surface low is trying to form.She is not out fellas.Allanjeffs 18:41, July 12, 2013 (UTC) ::: NHC says any regeneration of Chantal is highly unlikely due to interaction with wind shear from the front directly north of it. That will likely hinder any hopes of Chantal regenerating. I'm not ruling it out completely, but I don't personally expect Chantal to come back as of now. Ryan1000 20:45, July 12, 2013 (UTC) :Chantal's remnants are still at 20%. However, its organization is getting disorganized, and any significant development is unlikely at this point in time. AndrewTalk To Me 00:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC) :::Down to 10% again. Probably won't regenerate by now. Ryan1000 13:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC) :::And now down to near 0%. Chantal is essentially dead. AndrewTalk To Me 01:18, July 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::And now it's off the TWO, meaning curtains for Chantal for good. --HurricaneMaker99 10:07, July 14, 2013 (UTC) AOI: Bahamas Upper-level low feature over the Bahamas given a 0% by the National Hurricane Center, and is expected to move westward through southern Florida/Florida Straits. Since there's the strong winds in the lower levels I think this system won't develop, and will stay a mid-to upper-level feature. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:56, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, this is just a random area of thunderstorms that won't do more than bring some rain to parts of Florida. I'd be stunned if this becomes Dorian. Ryan1000 18:18, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Off the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 15:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Aoi:West of Florida Random 10% area west of Chantal.--Isaac829 05:39, July 13, 2013 (UTC) : This one has the potential to develop a non-tropical circulation according to NHC, but I think it's too close to land to become named, let alone numbered. It'll have to remain offshore for a while for it to develop, though it's expected to move north pretty soon. Ryan1000 13:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC) : I highly doubt this AOI will become anything at all. It will just give some rain to Florida and do nothing more than that. Unless this system is as eager to develop as was 2011's Tropical Depression Twelve-E and Tropical Storm Jose, again, we will not see anything from this AOI. AndrewTalk To Me 13:38, July 13, 2013 (UTC) ::Off the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 10:06, July 14, 2013 (UTC) 97L.INVEST 97L.INVEST Rescently popped up. Not on the TWO yet, but it's in the western GOM off of Mexico. Not forecast to do much anyways. Ryan1000 20:35, July 16, 2013 (UTC) :This isn't a real invest; it's a test product for transitioning to a new supercomputer. See the NHC's Facebook post. --HurricaneMaker99 01:45, July 17, 2013 (UTC) :::Ah crap. Didn't catch that, it didn't look half-bad either. Well, at least 08W in WPac is... Ryan1000 04:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::Aren't test invests supposed to have the leading number of 8 or 7? - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC) ::::The nhc explain in their facebook page that they give the num 97l because when they use 8, models don`t intialize correctly as with 9ths.Allanjeffs 08:26, July 18, 2013 (UTC) :::::Oh, ok. Thanks, it makes sense now. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:06, July 19, 2013 (UTC) AOI: West of Florida Random 10% area in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I think this will not develop before making landfall tomorrow. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 04:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :Down to 0% as it moves inland. --[[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 16:12, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Yeah, just some random AOI that had no chance. Waste of time to even write it up IMO, just like the one off of NC earlier. But, conservatives are conservatives...can't blame them. Ryan1000 17:20, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Off the TWO. I guess Dorian will come later... [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:37, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Ugh. Come ON Dorian. I mean, we have been waiting for you. (I think that he might form by next week.) ::: Rara Hooves 20:23, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::Uggh, we always look forward to a new name to become, well, named! Hello? Dorian! Are you coming anytime soon? You are welcome to form anytime, we want to see new names do something. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC) :::::None of the reliable models see any development in the next 7 days over the Atlantic. I agree with them, I don't really expect much to happen until August begins. The East Pacific has been unusually quiet since Erick; we've had 2 hurricanes in July over there, which is typical, but July typically sees 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major for EPac. The Atlantic has been the same since Chantal, but it's only sleeping for the time being imo. We'll get a lot more activity come August and September. Ryan1000 03:40, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::Waiting for Dorian to come? Ain't nobody got time for that. I mean COME ON, seriously. Is Dorian spending too much time in the mirror like his alter ego Gray? Come on, we are not gonna get a lot of storms in August thanks to this little fella. We all know this is fixed, Ingrid may not be the "terrifying I storm" that we had since 2001 but might be passed on to Humberto thanks to SLOOOOOOOOOOW development. Funny, eh? In September, we may see a full burst of activity. ANYWAY! Back to Dorian *Gray*, this storm, if he is taking too long to form (i.e. spending too much time in the mirror,) then he might as well become a powerful hurricane. DINKLEBERG! Rara Hooves 13:30, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::So if Dorian does not form yet, how many storms will we get this August? How bad will these storms be? Will they blow up? I'm not going to be surprised if he does not form this July and instead blows up to be a massive Category 4 or something next month. I have a meme to sum this all up. Rara Hooves 18:34, July 21, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, where the heck is Dorian?? I hope he comes soon, since we waited on him for a few weeks already! [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 21:25, July 21, 2013 (UTC) Eh, try to keep things on topic guys. We don't need a fairly-oddparents and NHC mix image on here. Keep in mind, this Wiki is about hurricanes, not about other cartoons or whatever you want it to be. Anyways, this AOI is long gone, and as I said, the rest of July will probrably be dead for the Atlantic. When August and September heat up, the Atlantic will really be something to watch. Ryan1000 04:16, July 22, 2013 (UTC) :I agree. Please cut the crap, or you will have your editing privileges revoked. Please stay on topic. And don't add a million spaces to threads! And post stupid pictures no one cares about and make strange remarks about names. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC) ::YE I don't think it's up to you to revoke editing privileges, but I totally agree with the unneeded childish aspects of the forum. -.- [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 15:37, July 22, 2013 (UTC) 04L.DORIAN Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season/Dorian 99L.INVEST ---- '''What Ryan1000 and STO12 were discussing before this became an AOI-' Nothing is really popping up on the NHC's website about this cluster of thunderstorms, but I thought it looked kind of interesting. The models aren't picking too much on it quite yet, but it might soon. The area of thunderstorms are just above the dry air and strong upper-level winds. It seems to be in a somewhat favorable conditions. Now, I'm not sure if this would turn into anything, but the reason why I'm bringing it up is because it's beginning to rotate and is continuing to cluster. It looks a lot like the beginning stages of development from waves that eventually became Gordon, Kirk, and Michael last year. If you look at 2012's satellite loop for the beginning wave stages for each storm, they look a lot like this. A small cluster that doesn't look like much, but became something. Even though it looks really interesting to me, I might be totally mistaken. But, thunderstorms beginning to wrap around each other like this is a hint of development. The satellite loop of this is even more revealing. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:49, July 23, 2013 (UTC) : This one is far west-northwest of 98L, well in the open Atlantic. I doubt this will do much, there's a cold front heading it's way that will turn it out to sea and weaken it by tomorrow or so. I hope we don't have any weaklings come out of storms like this, keep it an open wave. Ryan1000 18:02, July 23, 2013 (UTC) ---- New CATL invest! Yqt1001 (talk) 15:58, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :Otto, is this the AoI you were discussing in that thread you deleted earlier? --HurricaneMaker99 16:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::Anyway, SHIPS only predicts a maximum intensity of 41 knots. Please, 99L, don't become Erin! I have a couple friends named Erin, and while I don't think they're very interested in hurricanes in general, I'd hate to see the name Erin be slapped to an epic fail. Also, I don't want a 2011-esque string of weak storms to start the season! --HurricaneMaker99 16:41, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::20%! Yqt1001 (talk) 17:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC) Wow I just deleted a part of the forum about this area of thunderstorms before it became an AOI! Haha, I re-pasted above what me and Ryan1000 talked about before this was given a 20%. Also, HurricaneMaker, I'm sorry to tell you that this looks to become Erin, a minimal tropical storm, only because it's in favorable conditions. So to all your friends named Erin, looks like they missed an opportunity for a Hurricane Erin back in 2001. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 17:56, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : Yep, I think this will become Erin. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 18:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::: It'll probrably just be a weak TS that just steals a name off the list if it does develop. But, almost every season has some failure, wouldn't be surprised if this becomes 2013's first epic fail. Ryan1000 18:11, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::Here comes a re-2011 without a single strong storm before the I name. :P Yqt1001 (talk) 18:16, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I think Dorian could become a hurricane in the long run. I doubt we'll have no hurricanes out of the first 8 named storms this year, like we did in 2011, which was a first, no different than EPac in 2003. Ryan1000 18:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::This one would probably become Erin,That is why you never understimate a system.Allanjeffs 18:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::In all honesty, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become Erin. But I don't expect it to be very strong if it does so, unless (by some miracle) it pulls a Chris and becomes a hurricane lol. Ryan1000 18:34, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::Uhhh, if this becomes Erin, I doubt she'll do much. Rara Hooves 19:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC) 99L/Erin is expected to affect Canada a few days from now. Unlike 2011 (and even 2012), pending Dorian doesn't die out in the next few days, all 2013 storms so far wouldn't be a "wasted" name by just spinning fish. Definitely showing that the pattern for this year favours landfalls, we will probably get a really bad Caribbean storm sometime during peak I think. Yqt1001 (talk) 21:07, July 24, 2013 (UTC) : A good analogy to this would be Tropical Storm Ana of 1985, if the current forecasts from the models hold true and it runs into Newfoundland. It probrably won't do much, but it might not be much of a fail after all, if it doesn't stay at sea. Ryan1000 21:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC) ::The SHIPS forecast has gone up as well, to 56 knots :) Maybe I won't have to be so bummed if this becomes Erin! Granted, I'd prefer Hurricane Erin over Tropical Storm Erin, but still. --HurricaneMaker99 21:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::Oh Erin is wanting to make an appearance, the only thing that might disturb some additional development would be the cold front to its west. If that pushes the system too roughly, Future-Erin's chances of becoming a hurricane or at least a high-end tropical storm are going to be limited. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 21:52, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::20%!! :D And by the way.... I do agree with yqt. In my opinion, as soon as we get onto humberto, trouble starts brewing. Ry, I do agree with the Canada bit, and hurricane maker, I'm seeing a ts erin but we'll get there once we hit gabby and the kind. And I kinda agree with sto. :D Rara Hooves 21:55, July 24, 2013 (UTC) :::::I don`t care if its only a minimal ts,Just by reaching ts status and getting a name is not a fail to me,No matter if they make landfall or not.A fail for me is a tropical Depression,and it looks like its getting better organize.The Atlantic looks that it wants to catch the Eastern pacific.If this develop we will get 3 storms in July like 2011 and we will be in front of even 2012. :::::::2012 had an 8-storm August, tying 2004 for the most active August on record. Not sure if 2013 will too, but 2012 also had only a two-storm September, below the long term average of 3-4. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it does become Hurricane Erin, but hopefully it stays away from Newfoundland if it becomes a hurricane, otherwise this could get feisty for St. Johns. Ryan1000 02:53, July 25, 2013 (UTC) Still at 20%, conditions are still favorable, but the cold front to its west and the cold water might be an issue. If this does become Erin, a hurricane might be a little too good to be true. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 14:22, July 25, 2013 (UTC) : It's almost out of time. It better get on with it if it want's to become Erin. Ryan1000 14:40, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :: Yeah, its running out of time. It should quickly develop now if it wants to be Erin. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:29, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :::: Indeed it's starting to lose itself. Down to 10%. Ryan1000 17:43, July 25, 2013 (UTC) :::::: And it's gone. Looks like Dorian and Flossie are the only ones now. Ryan1000 00:45, July 26, 2013 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Hello, it looks like we have a new invest just offshore NC! NHC gives this a 20% chance of developing. It probably won't become anything, since it's forecast to move over colder waters tomorrow, but it's worth pointing out. --HurricaneMaker99 19:24, July 27, 2013 (UTC) I agree. This invest is a region where conditions are quite hostile. AndrewTalk To Me 19:25, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :: Peh. I agree. Peh peh peh. This invest is going to go sooner or later. Erin would probably come later. Rara Hooves 19:49, July 27, 2013 (UTC) :::: Worth mentioning it became an invest, but it won't do anything. Ryan1000 19:55, July 27, 2013 (UTC) Yeah....no...... This is not going to become anything. Erin is in August no doubt about it. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 22:52, July 27, 2013 (UTC) 90L is down to 10%. It is just going to die from here. I will be surprised if this can even become a tropical depression. AndrewTalk To Me 00:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC) 90L is down even further to near 0%. It is dying for sure very soon. AndrewTalk To Me 13:11, July 28, 2013 (UTC) :Well, considering it's just offshore Cape Cod and the Islands, I'd agree that development isn't happening. Has a tropical cyclone ever developed in that area? I know that Alberto of 1988 became a TS there, but it developed as a TD just offshore South Carolina. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:48, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, this ain't going to become ANYTHING. It will just die out later today. Erin will come in August. [[User:Steven09876|'Steven09876']] [[user talk:Steven09876|'(Talk to Me!!!)']] 15:52, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::HM99, there was an unnamed tropical storm (discovered in post-analysis) back in July 2006 that formed off of New England and headed northeast into Newfoundland, but I don't know of any other storms that developed in that area. It seems awfully far north for any storm to form there. Ryan1000 16:08, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Up to 30%. Quoted from the NHC: ::::::::A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN... IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 17:55, July 28, 2013 (UTC) That was Dorian...Isaac829 18:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC) : That is the remnants of Dorian...Not 90L. Ryan1000 18:33, July 28, 2013 (UTC) ::90L is off the TWO anyway. And thank you for the information, Ryan! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:13, July 28, 2013 (UTC)